Global Population – Trends, Data and Outlook
The population data stored in IORMA’s Knowledge HUB represent the total number of humans currently living on our planet. According to the United Nations’ Population Division the total number representing 235 countries can be estimated at 7.4 billion in 2016. The latest UN population prospects predicts this figure will increase to 8.14 billion in 2025, to 9.7 billion by 2050 and to 11.2 billion in the year 2100. (See the following table).
The world population has more than doubled since the 1960s, exceeding 7 billion in 2013. It will continue to grow, but at a slower rate, reaching 9.7 billion by 2050, according to the UN’s medium variant, depending on the policies pursued today.
Virtually all growth is projected to occur in developing countries, and particularly their cities, with population in these countries rising from 5.9 billion in 2013 to 8.2 billion in 2050, changing the global balance – population in developed regions is likely to stagnate or grow slightly, mostly due to immigration.
Some regions, however, where the population is still growing today are expected to move towards decline – it has already begun in the Caribbean, Japan, Russia and South America.
Demographic trends are also likely to increase global resource demand and related environmental pressures. The interaction of fertility and mortality rates influences population size. By 2005–2010, the global fertility rate had declined to 2.5 and is expected to fall to 1.8 by 2050, other than in Africa where it is unlikely to fall below 3.0 before 2050. Mortality, including childhood mortality, rates have also decreased resulting in global average life expectancy rising to 69 in 2005–2010, with significant regional variations, and is expected to reach 75 by 2045–2050.
Other interesting actual and forecasted data with respect to population determinants are;
Sixty per cent of the global population today lives in Asia (4.4 billion), 16 per cent in Africa (1.2 billion), 10 per cent in Europe (738 million), 9 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean (634 million), and the remaining 5 per cent in Northern America (358 million) and Oceania (39 million). China (1.4 billion) and India (1.3 billion) remain the two largest countries of the world, both with more than 1 billion people, representing 19 and 18 per cent of the world’s population, respectively. India will overtake China to become the world’s most populous nation by 2022, six years earlier than the previous forecast.
According to the UN forecasts, half of the world’s population growth between 2015 and 2050 is expected to be concentrated in nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the United States, Indonesia and Uganda. The populations of 28 African countries are projected to more than double, and by 2100, 10 African countries are projected to have increased by at least a factor of five.
In 2015, 50.4 per cent of the world’s population was male and 49.6 per cent female. The median age of the global population, was 29.6 years. About one-quarter (26 per cent) of the world’s people are under 15 years of age, 62 per cent are aged 15-59 years, and 12 per cent are 60 or over.
Director International Consumer Trends
Data Sources : United Nations Population Division, Offices of National Statistics, Regional Sources, IORMA Research and Estimates
Latest Update 19th April 2016